Message of Mr. Abdel Halim Khaddam to the Secretary-General of the Arab League

publisher: وكالات Agencies

Publishing date: 2012-05-14

Dr. Nabil Elaraby, Secretary General of the Arab League

I hope you read this letter carefully, as the one who wrote it is not one of those who dream of power or those seeking it, but rather one of those who are struggling to save Syria from a dangerous, tragic situation so that it can return to its place among the Arab countries fighting for freedom, justice, and achieving prosperity for their people and contributing to the security, stability, and safety of our region.

Some Syrians I recently met in Cairo told me that you told them about three stages to achieve change in Syria
The first stage is to convince Bashar al-Assad to leave power and his family to a safe place

The second stage: If the first stage fails, a military coup

The third stage: If the military coup fails, external military intervention

After hearing this information, I decided to write this letter to you, knowing that you are not the one who made the decision, but rather one of the contributors to its preparation, or at least the main promoter of these decisions, some of which are issued by well-known parties and others during discussions taking place behind the scenes of the Arab meetings.
Here's my take on the dangerous words she and I heard

Firstly, the issue of Bashar al-Assad’s departure

It has been clear in the recent period that some Arab and foreign parties, along with Iran and Russia, have sought to pressure the murderer Bashar al-Assad to leave and form a coalition government to manage the affairs of the transitional period and then hold presidential elections.

This stage will not succeed, as Iran will not abandon Bashar al-Assad, nor will Russia, except in one case: the two countries guarantee that the regime and the main institutions will remain in their current state, especially the two institutions on which the regime is based, which are the army and the security services.
In addition, this government will not be able to take any basic decision, as happened in Lebanon at the stage when Prime Minister Saad Hariri formed the coalition ministry after the Doha Conference.

At this stage, with the stagnation of the situation and the inability to take basic decisions to stop the economic deterioration and work to rebuild what was destroyed by the regime’s aggression, the situation will get worse in the country and the supporters of the security regime will spread chaos, which will lead to more frustration and pain to cover up the crimes of Bashar al-Assad.

In the elections that follow, Bashar al-Assad will again return to power

If this solution is not accompanied by a comprehensive change in the security system and referring all those who committed crimes to justice to hold them accountable, the suffering of Syrians will increase and the danger of the situation in Syria will increase, and this danger will extend beyond the Syrian borders.
The Iranian-Russian alliance will adhere to its position and will reject structural changes in the regime, as Iran realizes that the fall of the murderous regime means the fall of its strategic base in the region, its loss of Lebanon and Iraq, and its withdrawal within its national borders to face its complex internal difficulties.

Russia realizes that the fall of this regime will lose it a strategic gain that Russian leaders have long sought throughout history to obtain

Secondly, the issue of the military coup:
Those who think about a military coup recall the history of coups in Syria without knowing that times have changed and the structure of the army has changed. The difficulty of achieving the coup lies in the following matters:

A)  In the decade of the fifties, when several coups and coup attempts took place, the number of the Syrian army at that time did not exceed thirty thousand, and it was enough for the First Brigade to move in the Kiswa to bring down the government. Moreover, a low-ranking officer, who was Captain Mustafa Hamdoun at the time, brought down the regime of Adeeb Al-Shishakli.
B)  The other basic matter is that Hafez al-Assad changed the army’s doctrine from loyalty to the homeland and the people to loyalty to the president of the regime and gradually changed the structure of the armed forces and security services through affiliation with military and security colleges, so that the number of those affiliated with these colleges annually exceeded more than three thousand and five hundred students, while the number in previous years was no. It exceeds one hundred and twenty students, and eighty-five percent of these students belong to the Sahel region, that is, the Alawite sect
C) There may be individuals among the senior officers who can think or give the impression of their readiness to work to achieve the military coup, but they have nothing in their hands and they are commanded by the theory that the actual leadership of the units is in the hands of mid-ranking and junior officers whose loyalty is to the palace. In addition, the tyrant Bashar al-Assad has succeeded in provoking tension. The sectarianism of these people was evident in the acts of killing and destruction they carried out. Two important points were pointed out: the first is the role of the security services in internal oversight of all army officers without exception, and the other is that the number of the army is approximately four hundred thousand soldiers and it is not easy to play in the army.

The military coup could take place in one case if the Alawite sect completely turned away from Bashar al-Assad, because all members of the sect who oppose Bashar al-Assad’s approach are oppressed by the regime.
Mr. Secretary-General

Since the first initiative of the League of Arab States and ending with the initiative of Mr. Kofi Annan, has anyone calculated the number of martyrs and wounded who were killed by the armed forces, security services, and shabiha? Has anyone calculated the number of detainees in the regime's prisons? Has anyone calculated the number of Syrian refugees in their homeland after the killing regime demolished their homes in city neighborhoods and villages? Has anyone thought to estimate Syria's economic and financial losses due to the killings, the demolition of entire neighborhoods and entire villages, the paralysis of the national economy, and the cessation of work?
The human, economic and moral losses were huge. Syria needs time to rebuild what this aggressive war destroyed in the country’s structure and national unity. After that, you are looking for initiatives or new solutions that will take a long time. How many Syrians must be slaughtered? How many neighborhoods must be destroyed? How much of the population must turn to asylum? How much national disunity will deepen and how much chaos will spread?

Is the goal of these successive programs to save the Syrian people or to destroy Syria and place it in one of the corners of history?
When we called for international military intervention in May of last year, we were seeing a picture of what would happen in Syria at that time. Unfortunately, some of those dreaming of power and seeking it, whom you enjoy, raised their voices loudly in condemnation, and they were followed by a series of League Council decisions rejecting external intervention without anyone being able to do so. To give justification or one reason for those decisions

When most Syrians called for foreign intervention, based on a patriotic position, because protecting and saving the Syrian people is protecting and liberating the homeland.

We say out loud that saving Syria and protecting its people is a Syrian interest and an interest for all Arabs, because defeating the revolution means an overwhelming victory for Iran in the region, and everyone understands the meaning of that.
Mr. Secretary-General

A few days ago, my attention was caught by a statement I read in Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper issued by you in which you said that the Arab League does not receive opponents who demand military intervention. Do you not see in this that you refuse to hear the voice of the Syrian people who go out in all their demonstrations demanding international military intervention? Do you see your position as a response to the call of mothers, fathers and children who are demanding international military intervention to protect their homeland and people?

Is this long time intended to bring the situation in Syria to a stage where it will be easy for you to form a group of Syrians to negotiate with the regime at the expense of the blood of martyrs and the pain and suffering of the Syrian people?

Finally, my greetings to you

Abdul Halim Khaddam

Former Vice President of the Syrian Arab Republic