The former Vice President of the Syrian Arab Republic, Abdel Halim Khaddam, characterized Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as “a dictator who fails to learn from the experiences of his predecessors, who were overthrown by popular revolutions.” In an email interview with the German Press Agency in Cairo, he dismissed the possibility of Hezbollah, a staunch ally of the Syrian regime, engaging in military escalation with Israel to divert attention and alleviate international pressure on the Syrian regime. Khaddam explained, “I don’t believe Hezbollah will initiate a war with Israel. They have no interest in doing so. Such a decision would require Iranian approval. The Iranian leadership understands that Hezbollah’s involvement under these circumstances would result in a blowback. Therefore, they don’t want to jeopardize their most significant armed force operating beyond their borders.”
Khaddam also ruled out the notion that Bashar al-Assad would turn against influential figures within the ruling circles, such as Rami, Hafez Makhlouf, and his brother Maher Al-Assad, through a corrective revolution in which Bashar would blame them in an attempt to save himself and his rule. He stated, “I don’t expect Bashar al-Assad to stage a coup against his brother or for Maher to do so. If there is tension between them, one of them will eliminate the other.”
Addressing the possibility of Maher Al-Assad or someone close to the ruling circles turning against Bashar with the support of Iran, which may seek to maintain its alliance with Syria after a change in the regime’s external facade, Khaddam stated, “As I mentioned earlier, Maher al-Assad will not launch a coup against his brother. If he does, Iran will not support him. Iran is committed to supporting the regime. Additionally, no one in Syria accepts that any member of the ruling family remains immune. The Syrian people aspire to build a democratic civil state and not to continue under a totalitarian, authoritarian, and corrupt rule.”
Khaddam refuted the existence of divisions within the ruling family in Syria, emphasizing that Bashar al-Assad is still regarded as the “strongest figure” within the family and the ruling circle. He remarked, “The Assad family consists of two decision-makers, Bashar and Maher Al-Assad. The others are supporters and implementers. However, it is no longer acceptable to discuss the possibility of the Assad family’s continued rule and the persistence of a totalitarian regime.” Responding to a question about the Syrian regime’s ability to withstand popular demonstrations, particularly in light of the continued loyalty of the army and other security agencies, as well as the varying pace of demonstrations across different Syrian governorates, Khaddam stated, “After assuming power, Hafez al-Assad rebuilt the armed forces and security services and admitted a majority of Alawite students and a small number of other Syrians to military and security colleges because he considered the army and security services as guardians of the regime. Hence, they became the regime’s primary instruments of power. While it is true that the demonstrations are not uniform in terms of pace and intensity across all Syrian governorates, it is inaccurate to claim that some areas have not participated due to support for the regime. Instead, people are fearful of the brutal repression practiced by the regime.”
Khaddam emphasized that the Syrian regime has no chance of avoiding a scenario of collapse, but the timing and outcome of this fall are contingent on the evolution of events and various internal and external factors. He also stated that the regime cannot evade its downfall through roadmaps and initiatives proposed by neighboring countries, including Iran and Turkey. Iran, the regime’s ally, lacks confidence in it, and Turkey is increasingly convinced that the regime is no longer fit to continue.
