Expanded Number S-0899-0001 -03-00001 Title Items-in-Middle East
– notes for the files Date Created 05/01/1974 Record Type Archival Item Container S-0899-0001: Peacekeeping – Middle East 1945-1981
NOTES FOR THE SECRETARY-GENERAL ON ‘THE MIDLEEAST PROBLEM
Prospects for the reactivation of peace efforts in the Middle East
Prospects remain gloomy. There is a general consensus that until the situation improves appreciably in Lebanon, the parties concerned will show no urgency for advancing towards the goal of a just and lasting peace. In Lebanon itself, fighting continues in spite of the many cease-fires called for by the League of Arab States. The fall of Tel Zaatar presents the grim prospect of further deterioration in any prospects for accommodation between the Lebanese parties.
The Secretary-General has already indicated his intention to pursue his own efforts to assist the parties in moving negotiations forward.
He is however also constrained by the elements mentioned in the preceding paragraph. It may be possible, however, that the Secretary-General, during the course of the General Debate when the Foreign Ministers of the parties are present at Headquarters, may want to discuss with them his peace initiative which commenced with the Guyer mission in March and was followed by his aide-mmoire to all the parties concerned. The Secretary-General has studied carefully the replies of the parties, and has taken note of the strong views by some of the parties that the Geneva Peace Conference should be reconvened with the participation of the representative of the PLO. The deadlock remains, however, with respect to the Geneva Conference in view of the United States and Israel’s opposition to the representation of the PLO at a reconvened Geneva Peace Conference.
Israel-Syria Sector
The main feature here is the very heavy involvement of Syria in the Lebanese crisis. According to information available to the Commander of UNDOF, Syria has now deployed all its available divisions to such an extent that it is not in a position to conduct any viable military operation against Israel. (Syria has committed its troops not only in Lebanon but in the Iraq Syria border). This may account for the present tranquility in the Israel-Syria sector. The recent change of Government, which did not affect the position of two of the most important officials, Foreign Minister khaddam and Defense Minister Tlas, would indicate that President Assad does not plan on a change of policy at the present time. What remains in doubt, however, is the long-term close co-operation between Jordan and Syria. in this connexion, the decision by Jordan to forego a Soviet missile system in favor of continued reliance on an American missile system may trigger friction in Syria-Jordan relation.
Syria has not yet given any indication of its willingness to engage in serious talks with Israel for a further disengagement in the Golan Heights, in spite of the numerous rumors that Syria’s confrontation with the PLO is the prelude to active Israeli-Syrian disengagement arrangements. The retention of Foreign Minister Khaddam would suggest that speculations in this regard are unfounded. Cairo newspapers have carried reports that Syria would oppose, at a non-aligned conference, any move by Egypt to call for the reconvening of the Geneva Peace Conference with the full participation of the PLO. However, reports in Cairo press about Syria should be treated with extreme caution.
