There is a question echoing in Arab capitals these days, being raised everywhere about the possibility of a war breaking out during the current summer in the Middle East. In some of these capitals, rumors circulate that Israel is looking for any pretext to attack Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and may simultaneously launch airstrikes on Syria. However, the reports released last week regarding secret negotiations between Syria and Israel, mediated by Turkey since April 2007 and officially confirmed by Ankara and Damascus, contradict prevailing theories about the possibility of war, although some consider them as confirming the possibility of war.
While the details of the secret contacts between Assad and Olmert through direct Turkish mediation remain shrouded in mystery, Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan merely says, “We are at the beginning of the road.” Former Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam suggests that the negotiations have reached an advanced stage and points out that Turkey has gone beyond its role as a messenger by presenting its own proposals to assist both sides. Khaddam relies on informed American sources about the content of the negotiations and states, quoting these sources, that Israel offered the Syrian president the return of a smaller portion of the Golan Heights compared to what was previously offered in Geneva by Israel to his father, the late President Hafez al-Assad, while Israel would retain the remaining area under lease for 99 years.
Khaddam, who seeks to overthrow the Syrian regime, believes that Iran and Hezbollah are not only part of Israel’s calculations behind signing a peace agreement but also play an important role in extracting the Syrian president from his international isolation. Khaddam and some observers also suggest that Assad hopes, through an agreement with Israel, to avoid investigations into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which alleges the involvement of several individuals closely related to the Syrian president, with rumors suggesting that the president himself was aware of it.